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+This also came up when I was visiting my parents recently, and saw my sister and her boyfriend and my brother. That evening was a long discussion and provided lots of other ideas to discuss but one thing that was brought up was the varying levels of faith on whether NATO would intervene in case of a Russian invasion into a country such as Estonia (another NATO member state).
+
+My sister's boyfriend has less faith that NATO would intervene in such a scenario, stating that in the case of an invasion (/ special military operation that will dramatically overrun the original timeline and cost more men and material than ever expected to be possible) of Estonia, realistically nations such as Poland, Finland and Sweden would actually intervene. The rest, adhering to the principles of Article 5, would send a strongly worded letter condemning the Russian invasion and say that they fulfilled their duties as this is what they believed to be necessary.
+
+Article 5:
+> The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
+> Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
+
+Now, this is a classic and somewhat understandable NATO concern, if Russia invaded, especially small and insignificant country like Estonia - would other nations and governments risk their approval ratings, countrymen and money to fend off a Russian invasion, especially if they can _somewhat reasonably_ get out of that responsibility. My answer is yes, even if they don't necessarily do so to their _absolute fullest_ extent.
+
+So here we have the two perspectives:
+- Local NATO members would intervene.
+- Most / all NATO members would send / deploy armed force to resist a Russian invasion and essentially enter into armed conflict with Russia.
+
+If I recall correctly there is not necessarily disagreement on how effective being a NATO member is as a deterrent to Russian aggression - I think the world's stance and history are quite clear on that. No NATO member has ever been invaded by Russia. Non-NATO members on the other hand, Russia seems quite eager to "intervene" in.
+
+I'd even argue the steps that would need to be taken for this deterrent to fail would be quite drastic (though, unfortunately are _partially_ occurring). Complete failure is yet to set in, and hopefully never does.
+
projects / research-obsidian.git / commitdiff